Based on 2015 abundance of Aedes albopictus in nine northern Italian municipalities with temperate continental/oceanic climate, we estimated the basic reproductive number R0 for Zika virus (ZIKV) to be systematically below the epidemic threshold in most scenarios. Results were sensitive to the value of the probability of mosquito infection after biting a viraemic host. Therefore, further studies are required to improve models and predictions, namely evaluating vector competence and potential non-vector transmissions.
Guzzetta, G.; Poletti, P.; Montarsi, F.; Baldacchino, F.A.; Capelli, G.; Rizzoli, A.; Rosa', R.; Merler, S. (2016). Assessing the potential risk of Zika virus epidemics in temperate areas with established Aedes albopictus populations. EUROSURVEILLANCE, 21 (15): 1-6. doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2016.21.15.30199 handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10449/33408
Assessing the potential risk of Zika virus epidemics in temperate areas with established Aedes albopictus populations
Baldacchino, Frederic Alexandre;Rizzoli, Annapaola;Rosa', Roberto;
2016-01-01
Abstract
Based on 2015 abundance of Aedes albopictus in nine northern Italian municipalities with temperate continental/oceanic climate, we estimated the basic reproductive number R0 for Zika virus (ZIKV) to be systematically below the epidemic threshold in most scenarios. Results were sensitive to the value of the probability of mosquito infection after biting a viraemic host. Therefore, further studies are required to improve models and predictions, namely evaluating vector competence and potential non-vector transmissions.
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