The ongoing geographical expansion of dengue is inducing an epidemiological transition in many previously transmission-free urban areas, which are now prone to annual epidemics. To analyze the spatiotemporal dynamics of dengue in these settings, we reconstruct transmission chains in Porto Alegre, Brazil, by applying a Bayesian inference model to geo-located dengue cases from 2013 to 2016. We found that transmission clusters expand by linearly increasing their diameter with time, at an average rate of about 600 m month−1. The majority (70.4%, 95% CI: 58.2–79.8%) of individual transmission events occur within a distance of 500 m. Cluster diameter, duration, and epidemic size are proportionally smaller when control interventions were more timely and intense. The results suggest that a large proportion of cases are transmitted via short-distance human movement (<1 km) and a limited contribution of long distance commuting within the city. These results can assist the design of control policies, including insecticide spraying and strategies for active case finding.

Guzzetta, G.; Marques-Toledo, C.A.; Rosà, R.; Teixeira, M.; Merler, S. (2018). Quantifying the spatial spread of dengue in a non-endemic Brazilian metropolis via transmission chain reconstruction. NATURE COMMUNICATIONS, 9: 2837. doi: 10.1038/s41467-018-05230-4 handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10449/50044

Quantifying the spatial spread of dengue in a non-endemic Brazilian metropolis via transmission chain reconstruction

Rosà, R.;
2018-01-01

Abstract

The ongoing geographical expansion of dengue is inducing an epidemiological transition in many previously transmission-free urban areas, which are now prone to annual epidemics. To analyze the spatiotemporal dynamics of dengue in these settings, we reconstruct transmission chains in Porto Alegre, Brazil, by applying a Bayesian inference model to geo-located dengue cases from 2013 to 2016. We found that transmission clusters expand by linearly increasing their diameter with time, at an average rate of about 600 m month−1. The majority (70.4%, 95% CI: 58.2–79.8%) of individual transmission events occur within a distance of 500 m. Cluster diameter, duration, and epidemic size are proportionally smaller when control interventions were more timely and intense. The results suggest that a large proportion of cases are transmitted via short-distance human movement (<1 km) and a limited contribution of long distance commuting within the city. These results can assist the design of control policies, including insecticide spraying and strategies for active case finding.
Settore VET/06 - PARASSITOLOGIA E MALATTIE PARASSITARIE DEGLI ANIMALI
Guzzetta, G.; Marques-Toledo, C.A.; Rosà, R.; Teixeira, M.; Merler, S. (2018). Quantifying the spatial spread of dengue in a non-endemic Brazilian metropolis via transmission chain reconstruction. NATURE COMMUNICATIONS, 9: 2837. doi: 10.1038/s41467-018-05230-4 handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10449/50044
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