Environmental modelling and spatial ecology with focus on invasive Aedes mosquitoes and emergent mosquito-borne pathogens

Biological invasions are a side effect of globalisation and human modification of natural systems. Invasive mosquitoes and the pathogens that they carry are leading causes of human suffering. Mosquito vectors of pathogens are often ecologically plastic and able to exploit human movements to disperse. As such they spread across wide geographical areas and are among the most successful species to have become invasive. Mosquito-borne pathogens have complex life cycles which involve a rich set of reservoir and vector hosts. They are evolutionarily very dynamic, ready to take advantage of new opportunities offered by anthropogenic environmental changes. Many pathogens associated with mosquitoes are indeed changing their ecology or modifying their geographical and biological distribution, being considered as invasive species. Despite this impressive plasticity, invasive mosquitoes and mosquito-borne pathogens are still part of a natural system, and as such are limited by environmental conditions. The main target of my research was to apply ecological theory and environmental modelling to gain knowledge on these limiting conditions, by establishing mechanistic and correlative associations between the environment, invasive vectors and pathogen demographics, as well as physiological and spatial dynamics. Understanding these mechanisms is key to design effective health policies which aim to mitigate the emergence of new pathogens, mainly by hindering the population that vectors them. The core of this thesis is formed by a series of stand-alone scientific papers, published, submitted or close to submission to peer-reviewed journals; the core chapters are backed by the General Introduction, and the General Summary and Outlook.