Validazione di un modello di sviluppo delle popolazioni di Drosophila suzukii basato sulla temperatura come strumento per la valutazione del rischio di attacchi e la gestione territoriale

Temperature-dependent fecundity and survival data was integrated into a matrix population model to describe relative Drosophila suzukii population increase and age structure based on environmental conditions. This novel modification of the classic Leslie matrix population model is presented as a way to examine how insect populations interact with the environment, and has application as a predictor of population density. As case studies, we examined model predictions in a small fruit production region in Trento province, Italy. In general, patterns of adult D. suzukii trap activity broadly mimicked seasonal population levels predicted by the model using so far only temperature data. The model is advantageous in that it provides stage-specific population estimation, which can potentially guide management strategies and provide unique opportunities to simulate stage-specific management effects such as insecticide applications or the effect of biological control on a specific life-stage.