A climatic perspective of the presence of the european grapevine moth (Lobesia botrana Den. and Schiff) in the Abruzzo region, Italy

The European grapevine moth (Lobesia botrana) is probably the most important parasite of grapevine in Italy. This work analyzes the impact of climatic change on the development of L. botrana in the main viticultural areas of Abruzzo, central Italy. The calibration and validation of a mechanistic model based on Allen’s thermal sums, allowed to estimate an advance of the flight dates of the carpophagous generations in two viticultural areas of the Adriatic coastal foothill. The higher bioclimatic availability, calculated by thermal sums from 1st January to 30th September, in the period 1951-2011, suggests that in some areas a third carpophagous generation could develop. In fact, a positive trend was calculated for thermal sums in the period. However, the harmfulness of this lepidopter might be decreased by the concomitant advance of the vintage times.