Delphi-based change assessment in ecosystem service values to support strategic spatial planning in Italian landscapes

Most impacts on providing ecosystem services (ESs) are related to land use changes that may cause ecosystem fragmentation and loss of ecosystem functions. Spatial planning, focusing on sustainable landscape development, should consider the local potential for providing ESs as well possible impacts due to land use changes. The results of a large number of recent studies on ES assessment are difficult to replicate and integrate into landscape planning or definition of land use policies. The time and resource constraints, needed in data gathering and analysis, limit local administrations in the concern about ES. Extending the approach of spatially explicit benefit transfer, we present an expert-based estimation of land use potential in providing ES. We enhanced ES estimations related to different land use classes (in terms of D/ha year) by considering “local conditions” such as elevation and distance from urban areas, assuming these spatial characteristics can affect ES provisioning. The adaptation for “local conditions” was performed through expert consultation, using Delphi survey and focus groups, involving 46 experts from 10 Italian research institutions. In detail, we used land cover maps for 1990 and 2000, and aggregated the results on the province scale. The results show spatial pattern of gains and losses in ES values for Italian provinces. The province level of aggregation seems to be effective for dealing with strategic phase of spatial planning. By eliciting possible consequences of land use changes, this knowledge framework may foster strategies for sustainable landscape planning and management.