Novel technologies and ensemble modelling for climate-sensitive vector activity and vector-borne disease risk assessment

Vector-borne diseases (VBDs) pose significant challenges to global public health, contributing extensively to morbidity and mortality worldwide. The dynamics governing VBD transmission are highly complex, involving multifaceted interactions among vectors, hosts, pathogens, and environmental factors. Recent advances in mathematical modelling and machine learning have substantially improved our ability to understand these intricate dynamics, offering powerful tools to better anticipate disease transmission and to guide effective control and potential elimination strategies. We initiated a dedicated workshop series to examine a wide array of advanced modelling techniques designed to predict mosquito and pathogen transmission under varying environmental conditions. By bringing together experts from diverse disciplines, the workshops foster an inclusive, collaborative environment that encourages open dialogue and critical analysis. Participants evaluate the strengths and limitations of existing modelling frameworks, explore emerging methodologies and ensemble modelling to enhance predictive accuracy, and identify key gaps in current knowledge requiring further research. The workshops also feature training sessions suitable for participants at all levels of expertise, fostering knowledge exchange and facilitating the integration of innovative technologies into public health strategies. Outcomes from the workshops are prepared for dissemination through open-access repositories and integration into the Climate-Driven Vector-Borne Disease Risk Assessment platform (VEClim). VEClim serves as an essential tool for early warning and decision-support systems, aiming to enhance vector control and outbreak management capabilities. Through its user-friendly, web-based Geographic Information System (GIS), VEClim ensures versatile access to advanced modelling tools, offering reliable short-, medium-, and long-term predictions of habitat suitability, vector activity, and associated disease risks. VEClim is operationally managed by The Cyprus Institute and remains permanently accessible via its dedicated domain: veclim.com.