Increase in airborne allergenic pollen in Trentino (North Italy): knowledge to adapt to climate change

Pollen allergy affects approximately 25% of adult and 40% of children globally (Nur Husna et al. 2022). Climate change is impacting allergenicity and pollen production, as well as the spread of neophytes that produce allergenic pollen, due to the combined effects of milder weather, air pollution, and elevated CO2 levels (Luschkova et al. 2022). As a result, there is an upward trend in allergic diseases (D’Amato et al. 2015). The study of pollen and its spatio-temporal changes is highly important due to the allergenicity of many airborne pollen taxa. Earlier-onset of pollen, the lengthening of the pollen season, and/or the increase in pollen quantities, can diminish the quality of life of allergic patients. In the "one health" perspective, we examine how climate change impact the ecosystem, affecting human well-being and health. Phenology, the science of natural recurring events, is one of the preferred indicators for observing the impacts of climate change on ecosystems and biological processes (Parmesan 2006). The shift in phenology is a high-temporal resolution signal of this impact and pollen dispersal is often used as a reliable proxy of flowering. This study describes the significant changes that have occurred to the airborne pollen component recorded in San Michele all’Adige, Northern Italy, from 1989 to 2018, analyzing a total of 24 arboreal (AP; trees and shrubs) and non-arboreal pollen taxa (NAP; herbaceous). Airborne pollen was collected using a volumetric Hirst-type aerobiological sampler (Lanzoni VPPS 2000), and the daily concentration of airborne pollen (P*m-3) was calculated for each taxon over a 30-year period from 1989 to 2018. The sampling and analysis of airborne pollen have been performed in accordance with the UNI EN 16868:2019 European standard procedure. The following pollen season descriptors were calculated for each taxon: (i) annual pollen integral (APIn; pollen*day*m-3); (ii) the start and end dates of the main pollen season (MPS), as the day of the year (DOY) when 2.5% and 97.5% of the APIn was reached, respectively; (iii) the length of the MPS, as the difference between the end and start DOY (+1); (iv) peak concentration; and (v) peak date, as the DOY when the maximum concentration was registered. The presence of a monotonic upward or downward temporal trend in pollen season descriptors was verified and changes were analyzed in relation to temperature, precipitation, and land use; in addition, pollen data were analyzed clustered into blocks of one decade each to minimize interannual fluctuations and maximize relevant change signals. The major result is an increase in pollen load (Fig. 1). All arboreal and shrub species (AP) and the majority of herbaceous (NAP) species had an impressive increase in pollen quantities. The extent of the increase in pollen load is evident when analyzing decadic blocks, with a relevant increase in the APIn for the total pollen spectrum, mostly due to AP taxa, with hop hornbeam and cypress family accounting for 49% of the increase (average on the 30-year period). Accordingly, AP shows a significant increase (+31 days) in the number of days with high pollen concentrations (i.e., > 100 pollen grains/m3). Such an increase in pollen quantity is unlikely to be related to changes in land use, given that the increase in forests and semi-natural areas is limited. The finding of an increase in APIn, especially marked for AP taxa, is consistent with previous studies and on a broader scale, from Europe (Ziello et al. 2012) to the entire Northern Hemisphere (Ziska et al. 2019). Moreover, some evidence of early start date for some taxa has been observed (e.g. Poaceae), at the same time as a longer pollen seasons for other taxa (e.g. Cupressaceae). A larger amount of pollen, an increase in the number of days with high pollen concentration, and an early start to the pollen season, which have been occurring since 1990 in the study area, all constitute a worsening situation and a major threat to people with pollen allergies. Thanks to these achievements it is possible to develop proposals for adaptation strategies that include as early stages: (i) development and implementation of risk communication strategies, (ii) implementation of good practices for green management. These proposals will be included in the Climate Change Adaptation Strategy of the Autonomous Province of Trento, which is currently being defined. Figures Fig 1: Increase of total arboreal pollen integral in the 30 years; detail for Ostrya (hop hornbeam) pollen taxonomy