Modelling vector dynamic and arbovirus outbreaks in Europe

The colonization by mosquito species such as Aedes albopictus of Europe represents an alarming public health threat due to their potential role as competent vectors for arboviruses. Moreover, the expanding geographic range of mosquito-borne diseases such as Dengue and Chikungunya and the re-occurrence of significant outbreaks in endemic countries have increased the risk of infected travellers reaching Europe. The combination of these factors has already had an impact. Indeed, Southern Europe experienced in the last decade events of autochthonous transmission of Dengue in France and Croatia and two Chikungunya outbreaks in Italy. Mathematical and statistical models can improve our knowledge on vector and outbreak dynamics, which in turn could help reduce the public health burden represented by mosquito-borne diseases. In fact, understanding the vector population dynamic is essential to identify under which conditions the transmission risk is higher. Moreover, estimates of the vector population dynamics and of the likelihood and impact of arbovirus transmission could help the planning of preventive and reactive interventions. Using the recent (2017) Italian outbreak of Chikungunya, the application of mathematical and statistical models will be showcased to illustrate the quantitative estimation of vector dynamics and transmission risk and their potential to understand actual outbreak dynamics and to inform control interventions.