Temporal variation of Dobrava-Belgrade virus (Bunyaviridae, Hantavirus) seroprevalence in a yellow-necked mice population in northern Italy

Dobrava-Belgrade virus (DOBV) is the most pathogenic hantavirus in Europe with a case-fatality rate of up to 12%. Here we present the prevalence of antibodies to DOBV in a population of Apodemus flavicollis in the Province of Trento (northern Italy) from 2000-2013. Over the 14- year study period, 2189 animals were live-trapped and mean hantavirus seroprevalence was 3.15% (S.E.=0.3 %), ranging from 0% (in 2000, 2002 and 2003) to 12.5% (in 2012) with an abrupt increase from 2010. Climatic (temperature and precipitation) and host (population density; individual body mass and sex; and larval tick burden) variables were analyzed with Generalized Linear Models using multimodel inference to select the best model. Mean annual precipitation, annual maximum temperature and individual body mass were found to have a positive effect on DOBV seroprevalence. We discuss possible conditions that may explain the observed pattern. We are also exploring whether contact rates differed among individual yellow-necked mice and how host heterogeneities may influence potential DOBV transmission using network theory.