Global changes and wildlife zoonotic disease emergence: the case of tick-borne encephalitis

Of all the known zoonotic tick borne diseases, tick borne encephalitis caused by TBE virus (TBEV) is the most common tick borne disease transmitted to humans in Europe and eastern and central Asia. It is now endemic in 27 European countries, and has been declared an international public health problem. Since the virus is also transmissible through raw milk and dairy products of infected goats, sheep or cattle TBEV has the potential to make a significant impact on food security and regional economy, especially in areas using traditional methods of milk collection and processing and the use of un pastorised milk for the production of typical local dairy products. We analysed pattern of TBE emergence in northern Italy combining eco-epidemiological long term and extensive surveys. Major drivers of disease emergence were identified in changes in forest management and the rise of ungulate population. Spatial and temporal variation in infection risk is driven by the interaction of several factors, including local variation of tick host abundance. Although significant progress have been made in our understanding of TBEV ecology, several other factors need a better understanding to improve our ability to predict how the risk of TBE infection would change in the near future under a global change scenario