Analysis of invasion scenarios of hedgehogs in New Zealand using ABC modeling

European hedgehogs (Erinaceus europaeus) were introduced to the New Zealand during the end of the 19th century. According to the historical and questionnaire data, first hedgehogs probably settled in the south of the South island (in Dunedin) and after that they also colonized the North island. Today’s population sizes are stable and hedgehogs are considered as pests which need to be reduced. We confirmed membership of New Zealand hedgehogs to the Great Britain lineage (which originates in Iberian ice age refuge) by using mtDNA (D-loop). 22 individuals from the source population and 190 individuals from 5 populations in the New Zealand were analyzed at 10 microsatellite loci. Analysis in Powsim showed that number of used individuals and microsatellite loci was sufficient to detect signal in population structure. Isolation By Distance wasn’t significant. Analysis in Structure supported division into four clusters which were used as basic operational units for ABC analyses. We created a set of scenario of invasion for testing in DIYABC. We found signal which is showing different way of invasion than supposed from historical data – from North Island to the South island. These results are demonstrating advantages of molecular markers usage and modern methods of population genetics in detail analysis of demographically expanding population.