Un modello per la previsione della distribuzione spaziale dell'infestazione da Phyllocnistis vitegenella nei vigneti trentini

Phyllocnistis vitegenella Clemens is a grape leafminer observed for the first time in Italy in the Veneto (1995) and whose presence has been observed since 2004 in Trentino. This species overwinters as an adult on tree species and re-colonize the vineyard in spring, with a diffusion gradient from the overwintering sites. This study aimed at validating a model for predicting the spatial distribution of leafminer through surveys of the damage in the field. Through this approach we estimated a possible distribution area suitable to perform an insecticide treatment when the hypothetical damage threshold was exceeded in order to reduce the environmental and economic impact. Although data on the population dynamics of the leafminer should be further investigated, it was possible to propose, calibrate and validate a model of spatial distribution of damage. New crucial issues arose from the analysis of the data. For example, the role of some tree species on the interface between the vineyards and the woodland must be investigated for the parameterizations of the boundary conditions in the model. A new experiment addressing these issue is currently being carried in the monitoring site.